Dhaka, Sep 08 (V7N)- Bangladesh's demand for international bandwidth is rising rapidly, but the development of new submarine cables and alternative international connectivity has failed to keep pace with the growing requirement.

Bandwidth demand, which stood at around 141 Gbps in 2015, has risen to approximately 13.5 Tbps in 2026. Industry projections suggest that demand could reach 27 Tbps by 2028 and 54 Tbps by 2030.

The country's total international traffic is currently around 12.1 Tbps. Industry stakeholders say bandwidth consumption has been growing by roughly 30 to 40 percent annually, effectively doubling in about two and a half years.

If the current trend continues, demand could reach 108 Tbps in 2032, 216 Tbps in 2034 and 305 Tbps in 2035, according to long-term projections.

Dependence on two submarine cables

Bangladesh's primary international connectivity currently depends on two submarine cable systems—C-ME-WE-4 and C-ME-WE-5, with design capacities of around 4.6 Tbps and 2.5 Tbps respectively.

C-ME-WE-4 was connected to Bangladesh in 2005 and was originally designed for a 20-year operational lifespan. Although measures have been taken to extend its service life, its efficiency has declined as the infrastructure has aged.

Meanwhile, C-ME-WE-5 has around 2.2 Tbps of lit-up capacity, of which approximately 1.488 Tbps is already in use, leaving only about 712 Gbps unused.

With demand continuing to rise rapidly, industry experts warn that the remaining capacity may not be sufficient for future requirements.

Bangladesh lags behind regional peers

Bangladesh also remains behind several regional countries in terms of submarine cable diversity. The country currently has connections to only two major submarine cable systems, while India has 19, Malaysia 23 and Thailand 12.

Countries including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand have developed multiple international routes through different submarine cable systems, reducing their dependence on any single connection.

Private submarine cable project faces delays

The private sector was expected to play an important role in expanding Bangladesh's international bandwidth capacity.

In September 2022, BTRC awarded licenses to Summit Communications, Cdinet Communications and Metacore Subcom to install, operate and maintain submarine cables. The three companies subsequently formed the BPCS Consortium.

The project's route survey was completed in early 2024. Under the original plan, cable installation was expected to be completed by the end of 2026, with commercial operations beginning by mid-2027.

The project is estimated to cost around Tk 2,700 crore, including about $42 million in foreign expenditure for installation. Of this amount, around $32 million has already been paid.

The project has received approvals from several government agencies, including the power and energy, shipping, defense, foreign affairs and environment authorities, as well as the Armed Forces Division.

However, complications remain over clearances from the Ministry of Home Affairs and the National Security Intelligence (NSI).

Security concerns over Chinese contractor

Geopolitical and national-security concerns have added another layer of uncertainty to the private project.

The project's main contractor is China-based HMN Tech, which has reportedly raised concerns in the United States over information security. According to people involved with the project, Washington has communicated concerns to Bangladesh about the use of a Chinese company in installing the submarine cable.

Project stakeholders, however, disagree with those concerns. Metacore Subcom CEO Mohammad Aminul Hakim said no Chinese active equipment would be used in the project and that Nokia technology is planned for both ends of the cable.

Uncertainty over C-ME-WE-6

There are also expectations surrounding the government's C-ME-WE-6 project. Although the initiative was taken in 2019 and a construction and maintenance agreement was signed in 2021, implementation has faced prolonged delays.

The current target is to bring the cable into service by the end of 2026. Once operational, it could provide Bangladesh with around 30 Tbps of additional capacity.

Risk of greater dependence on India

If new submarine cables are not connected on schedule, Bangladesh may have to rely increasingly on international terrestrial routes, particularly through India, to meet its growing bandwidth requirements.

Mashiur Rahman, former managing director of Bangladesh Submarine Cables PLC and CEO of Cdnet Communications, said the 20-year lifespan of the 2005 cable has already expired, while the capacity of C-ME-WE-5 is also approaching its limits.

He warned that delays surrounding C-ME-WE-6 could force Bangladesh to seek additional capacity from India as demand grows, creating potential economic and security risks from excessive dependence on a single country.

Bandwidth shortage could hurt investment

Technology expert Suman Ahmed Sabir said reliable digital infrastructure has become increasingly important for attracting foreign investment. Cheap labor and a large domestic market alone are no longer sufficient for investors, particularly in sectors such as data centers, artificial intelligence, cloud computing and technology-based businesses.

A shortage of reliable international connectivity could encourage new investments to move to other countries, he warned.

The impact would extend beyond internet users. As Bangladesh's digital economy expands, inadequate international bandwidth could affect business, trade, employment, freelancing, outsourcing, e-commerce, cloud services and data centers.

Experts call for multiple cable systems

Telecommunication sector adviser Rehan Asif Asad said bandwidth consumption is increasing by around 30 to 40 percent annually and that Bangladesh cannot meet future demand with only one or two submarine cables.

He stressed the need for multiple submarine cable systems and diversified international routes, while urging both the government and private sector to accelerate investment in new connectivity infrastructure.

With international bandwidth demand expected to multiply over the next decade, delays in expanding submarine connectivity could become a major challenge for Bangladesh's digital economy and national connectivity.

END/SMA/AJ