ISTANBUL, July 5,  (V7N) — US President Donald Trump's visit to Ankara for the NATO summit could help Turkey secure dozens of fighter jet engines, but analysts say it won't resolve the F-35 dispute that has strained ties.

The July 7-8 summit, hosted by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will gather leaders from the alliance’s 32 member states.

Last month, Trump said he would make Erdogan "very happy" when asked about Turkey’s efforts to obtain F110 jet engines and rejoin the F-35 fighter jet programme.

Analysts said the move would likely clear the way for Turkey to acquire F110 GE engines for its flagship KAAN stealth fighter project.

"It's likely to be the green light for the F110 GE engines for the KAAN fighter plane, about 40 of them. There had been obstacles to that supply and very possibly those are now being removed," Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Edam think tank, told AFP.

"Turkey has produced a couple of prototypes which are flying with the F110 engine, but it has been waiting for the supply of additional engines to increase the number of KAAN platforms," he said.

KAAN is a twin-engine stealth fighter being developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) to replace the Turkish Air Force's F-16 fleet as Ankara seeks to join the US, China and Russia in producing fifth-generation combat aircraft.

Turkey plans to eventually equip the fighter with a domestically produced engine, since the F110 lacks stealth capability, but that project is still in the preliminary design phase, Defence Minister Yasar Guler said in September.

Turkey received a first batch of 10 F110s in September, and talks with the US government to acquire 80 more were "ongoing," he said.

Indigenous defence systems

The supply has been delayed by a lack of political clearance linked to Turkey’s 2017 purchase of a Russian S-400 missile defence system, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in September.

In response, Washington expelled Turkey from its F-35 programme in 2019 and imposed CAATSA sanctions a year later, hampering Turkish defence projects and straining ties.

"The CAATSA issue must be resolved. The US needs to take steps both regarding the F-35 and the engines for KAAN. KAAN's engines are currently awaiting approval in the US Congress," Fidan said. His comments drew attention at home, as Turkey had said KAAN would be entirely domestically produced.

Ankara’s F-35 exclusion has pushed it to focus on self-sufficiency.

"Some argue we should not buy F-35s and invest that money into our own fifth-generation fighter jet programme. And that's exactly what's happening with President Trump's decision to export jet engines," said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara.

"Without those engines, Turkey cannot produce the KAAN jet."

F-35 deadlock drags on

With KAAN deliveries still years away, only Indonesia has placed an order, signing a $10bn contract for 48 fighters. The NATO summit could generate more interest, Ulgen said.

"Looking at the failure of the German-French FCAS initiative, there may be some interest. Spain could potentially become a partner and there may be interest from the Gulf as well... But there are more obstacles to be overcome for it to become a credible offer on the international stage," he said.

Experts expect little progress on the F-35 dispute. For Congress to lift CAATSA sanctions, Ankara would have to get rid of the S-400 — but selling it to a third country would need Moscow’s approval, and returning it to Russia is not on the table.

"The US administration might wish to... put this issue behind it and sell Turkey some F-35, but that will go to Congress and changing the congressional decision won't be easy," said Professor Mustafa Aydin, an international relations expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.

But Matthew Bryza, a retired US envoy and former senior White House and State Department official, said Trump could move to resolve the matter since the F-35 was an executive decision he could reverse.

"President Trump can certainly declare that the S-400/F-35 dispute is finished. It's the CAATSA sanctions that require congressional action. Whether he can persuade Congress to do that, depends on how much political capital he's willing to expend," he told AFP. The move could be "politically costly in the lead up to the midterm elections" due to Turkey's opponents in the Greek and Armenian diaspora.

END/WD/RH